Markets/Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:46 AM UTC

Closes October 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$59K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

2026

Full event →

the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

11%

the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 3, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%

½ Kelly6.5%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on October 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/637006