Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$59
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
23% / 30%
Spread
7.00pp
Expert Signal
27%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $59 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666657
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Kash Patel leave the Trump administration bef: 80%, Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration : 60%, Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration be: 58%.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration be
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this