Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
12% / 23%
Spread
11.00pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666660
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Kash Patel leave the Trump administration bef: 80%, Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration : 60%, Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration be: 58%.
Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Current
18% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this