Markets/Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 10:57 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

48%YES

52%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$691

Bid / Ask

39% / 57%

Spread

18.00pp

Expert Signal

48%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-17.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

72% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

47% YES — lowest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 21, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -43.0pp

95% → 52%

Mar 21, 2026

Peak probability

95% YES — highest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Current

55% YES (+2.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 48%99%

Buy YES@ 48¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 52¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 18.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677145