Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$14K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
1% / 22%
Spread
21.60pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 21.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678777
This event has 24 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 61%, May 31, 2026: 37%, US strike 7 countries in 2026?: 32%.
US strike 8 countries in 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
13% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
12% YES (-0.9pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this