Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
2% / 4%
Spread
1.60pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678781
This event has 24 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 61%, May 31, 2026: 37%, US strike 7 countries in 2026?: 32%.
US strike 12 countries in 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this