Markets/Will BP be acquired before 2027?

Will BP be acquired before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 08:59 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

25%YES

75%NO

Volume 24h

$71

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

23% / 27%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

25%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.3pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Feb 25, 2026

Trough probability

18% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

55%

Feb 26, 2026

Biggest move: +30.0pp

25% → 55%

Feb 26, 2026

Peak probability

55% YES — highest in period

Feb 26, 2026

Current

28% YES (-2.5pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 25%99%

Buy YES@ 25¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 75¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will BP be acquired before 2027?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $71 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will BP be acquired before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/694937