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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 11:32 PM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

21%YES

80%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

22% / 24%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

above $64,000 on March 22?

above $62,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 23?

above $66,000 on March 22?

above $68,000 on March 22?

above $66,000 on March 23?

above $70,000 on March 22?

above $70,000 on March 23?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 23?

21%

$80,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 23?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 22?

$85,000 in March?

above $76,000 on March 23?

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?

$90,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 22?

$72,000 on March 21?

$95,000 in March?

$74,000 on March 21?

$100,000 in March?

$105,000 in March?

$150,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?

$110,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?

$73,000 on March 21?

above $82,000 on March 23?

above $76,000 on March 22?

less than $62,000 on March 22?

above $84,000 on March 23?

above $78,000 on March 22?

$86,000 March 16-22?

above $80,000 on March 22?

above $82,000 on March 22?

$76,000 on March 21?

$77,000 on March 21?

$75,000 on March 21?

41 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Current

23% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 21%99%

Buy YES@ 21¢

Edge

+2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 80¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607684

Go Deeper

Entity Hub

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

Download 90d CSV

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