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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 03:09 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

37%YES

63%NO

Volume 24h

$747K

Liquidity

$84K

Bid / Ask

35% / 36%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

above $64,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 21?

above $60,000 on March 21?

above $66,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 22?

above $68,000 on March 21?

above $68,000 on March 22?

above $70,000 on March 21?

above $70,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

36%

above $72,000 on March 22?

$80,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 21?

$85,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?

$90,000 in March?

above $76,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?

above $78,000 on March 22?

$95,000 in March?

$100,000 in March?

$110,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 21?

$105,000 in March?

$150,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?

above $80,000 on March 22?

above $76,000 on March 21?

$72,000 on March 20?

above $82,000 on March 22?

$73,000 on March 20?

above $80,000 on March 21?

above $78,000 on March 21?

$76,000 on March 20?

Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 20?

$74,000 on March 20?

$78,000 on March 20?

$75,000 on March 20?

$77,000 on March 20?

43 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-47.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

84% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

23% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

44%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 5, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 13, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 14, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -34.8pp

78% → 44%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

97% YES — highest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Current

37% YES (-2.3pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 37%99%

Buy YES@ 37¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 63¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $747K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473072

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Venue Divergence

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Event Cluster

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