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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 03:09 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$98K

Liquidity

$134K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

above $64,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 21?

above $60,000 on March 21?

above $66,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 22?

above $68,000 on March 21?

above $68,000 on March 22?

above $70,000 on March 21?

above $70,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 22?

$80,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 21?

$85,000 in March?

3%

above $74,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?

$90,000 in March?

above $76,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?

above $78,000 on March 22?

$95,000 in March?

$100,000 in March?

$110,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 21?

$105,000 in March?

$150,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?

above $80,000 on March 22?

above $76,000 on March 21?

$72,000 on March 20?

above $82,000 on March 22?

$73,000 on March 20?

above $80,000 on March 21?

above $78,000 on March 21?

$76,000 on March 20?

Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 20?

$74,000 on March 20?

$78,000 on March 20?

$75,000 on March 20?

$77,000 on March 20?

43 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-9.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: +15.5pp

9% → 25%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

25% YES — highest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Current

3% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%

½ Kelly6.5%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $98K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473063

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