Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 11:39 AM UTC

Closes March 21, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

89%YES

12%NO

Volume 24h

$177K

Liquidity

$28K

Bid / Ask

77% / 79%

Spread

2.00pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+14.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

63% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Trough probability

45% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

45%

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: +20.0pp

53% → 73%

Mar 20, 2026

Peak probability

83% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

77% YES (-6.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 89%99%

Buy YES@ 89¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.3%

½ Kelly2.2%

Buy NO@ 12¢

-4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $177K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1588594