Markets/Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 08:28 AM UTC

Closes August 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$673

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

1% / 11%

Spread

9.70pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Full event →

the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

Edge

+8.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+8.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $673 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 9.70 percentage points. The market closes on August 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704342

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