Markets/Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 08:28 AM UTC

Closes August 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$630

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

0% / 3%

Spread

2.50pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+33.3pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Full event →

the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

Edge

+33.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 99¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+33.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $630 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.50 percentage points. The market closes on August 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704349

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.