Markets/AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 04:53 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

22%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

17% / 18%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+4.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +7.5pp

14% → 22%

Mar 11, 2026

Peak probability

25% YES — highest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Current

22% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 22%99%

Buy YES@ 22¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 78¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/691340