Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$191K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
56% / 58%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
53%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $191K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1356657
This event has 32 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 97%, Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after laun: 94%.
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
20% YES
Mar 24, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 29, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
45%
Mar 30, 2026
Biggest move: +34.5pp
40% → 75%
Mar 30, 2026
Peak probability
88% YES — highest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Current
53% YES (-28.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this