Markets/Iran leadership change by December 31?

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 05:03 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

62%YES

39%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$69K

Bid / Ask

61% / 62%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

62%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-8.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

70% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

61% YES — lowest in period

Mar 10, 2026

Biggest move: +5.5pp

65% → 71%

Mar 14, 2026

Current

62% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 62%99%

Buy YES@ 62¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.3%

½ Kelly0.6%

Buy NO@ 39¢

-1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Iran leadership change by December 31?" at 62% YES / 38% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 62%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Iran leadership change by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 62%, NO 38%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1535973