ForecastMind
Markets/Netanyahu out by June 30?
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Netanyahu out by June 30?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES
90%NO

Volume 24h

$127K

Liquidity

$176K

Bid / Ask

10% / 11%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Netanyahu out by June 30?

March

Full event →
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
48%
Netanyahu out by June 30?
11%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
9%
Netanyahu out by April 30?
4%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?
2%
Netanyahu out by March 31?
1%
Yoon out of custody by March 31?
1%
Trump out as President by March 31?
1%

8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-18.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

29% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Trough probability

9% YES — lowest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Biggest move: -21.5pp

44% → 22%

Mar 8, 2026

Peak probability

44% YES — highest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 11%99%
Buy YES@ 11¢
Edge

+4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Netanyahu out by June 30?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $127K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Netanyahu out by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1484987

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