Markets/Spread: Hawks (-14.5)

Spread: Hawks (-14.5)

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 11:10 PM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

46%YES

54%NO

Volume 24h

$50K

Liquidity

$296K

Bid / Ask

46% / 47%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

46%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: Hawks (-13.5)

Full event →

Spread: Hawks (-12.5)

55%

Spread: Hawks (-13.5)

51%

1H Spread: Hawks (-8.5)

48%

Spread: Hawks (-14.5)

46%

4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

49% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Current

46% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 46%99%

Buy YES@ 46¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 54¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-14.5)" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $50K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Spread: Hawks (-14.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1690629

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