Markets/Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 05:44 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

37%YES

64%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

34% / 36%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+7.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Mar 3, 2026

Biggest move: -10.5pp

42% → 32%

Mar 22, 2026

Peak probability

43% YES — highest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Current

35% YES (-2.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 37%99%

Buy YES@ 37¢

Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 64¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/687555