Markets/US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 06:30 AM UTC⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

0%YES

100%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-50.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

42%

Feb 28, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 1, 2026

Biggest move: -24.0pp

60% → 36%

Mar 1, 2026

Peak probability

60% YES — highest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 16, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466014

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