Markets/Waymo IPO before 2027?

Waymo IPO before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:11 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

22%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$898

Bid / Ask

16% / 28%

Spread

12.00pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

17% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

9% YES — lowest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Biggest move: +16.5pp

10% → 26%

Mar 2, 2026

Peak probability

26% YES — highest in period

Mar 2, 2026

Current

21% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 18, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 22%99%

Buy YES@ 22¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 78¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Waymo IPO before 2027?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 12.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Waymo IPO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1321740