Markets/Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 12:47 AM UTC

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$23K

Liquidity

$577K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential…

2028

Full event →

the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

25%

the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-18.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly18.4%

½ Kelly9.2%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 18.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559660