Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?
Closes March 23, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$68K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.70pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
March
24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
10% YES
Mar 16, 2026
Trough probability
2% YES — lowest in period
Mar 21, 2026
Biggest move: -14.5pp
37% → 22%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
37% YES — highest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Current
7% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-16.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $68K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1603561
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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