Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
1.50pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…
2026
19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Current
1% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+13.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947283
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