Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
Closes May 19, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$157K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
6% / 6%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate…
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Current
6% YES (-0.3pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $157K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on May 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679651
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