Markets/Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 09:44 PM UTC

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$820

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: -5.4pp

11% → 6%

Mar 9, 2026

Peak probability

11% YES — highest in period

Mar 8, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly11.1%

½ Kelly5.6%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 11.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $820 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1423716