Markets/Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 10:09 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

26%YES

74%NO

Volume 24h

$126K

Liquidity

$39K

Bid / Ask

26% / 26%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

26%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+16.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: +12.0pp

12% → 24%

Mar 22, 2026

Peak probability

26% YES — highest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Current

26% YES (+0.8pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 26%99%

Buy YES@ 26¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 74¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $126K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542962