Markets/Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:40 AM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES

81%NO

Volume 24h

$179K

Liquidity

$33K

Bid / Ask

23% / 24%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+16.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Biggest move: +9.5pp

9% → 19%

Mar 21, 2026

Peak probability

23% YES — highest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Current

22% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 19%99%

Buy YES@ 19¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 81¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $179K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542968