Markets/Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:43 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$177K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

11% / 12%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-20.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -21.6pp

26% → 4%

Mar 10, 2026

Current

5% YES (-1.7pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

Edge

+6.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $177K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1542972