Markets/Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Data as of Mar 25, 2026, 01:08 AM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

27%YES

73%NO

Volume 24h

$98K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

24% / 25%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

29% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Biggest move: -13.0pp

41% → 28%

Mar 25, 2026

Peak probability

49% YES — highest in period

Mar 24, 2026

Current

28% YES (-3.5pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 27%99%

Buy YES@ 27¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 73¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $98K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1672917