Markets/Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:05 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES

86%NO

Volume 24h

$41K

Liquidity

$57K

Bid / Ask

14% / 15%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

35%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?

March

Full event →

$2,400 in March?

14%

less than $1,800 on March 23?

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-27.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

42% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

14% YES — lowest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

54%

Mar 4, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 5, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 13, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

60%

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 18, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -38.0pp

83% → 45%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

90% YES — highest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Current

14% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 14%99%

Buy YES@ 14¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 86¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%

½ Kelly1.7%

Buy NO—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $41K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473070