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Markets/Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
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Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$20K

Liquidity

$610K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+29.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?

2028

Full event →
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
25%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
8%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
7%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%

66 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+29.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+29.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559659

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