Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$854K
Liquidity
$218K
Bid / Ask
76% / 77%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by…
March
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
82% YES
Mar 3, 2026
Trough probability
41% YES — lowest in period
Mar 8, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
41%
Mar 8, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 9, 2026
Biggest move: -25.0pp
66% → 41%
Mar 8, 2026
Current
98% YES (+1.6pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $854K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677397
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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