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Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$29K

Liquidity

$597K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?

2028

Full event →
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
25%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
8%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
7%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%

66 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.0%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559655

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Venue Divergence

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Event Cluster

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