Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Closes October 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$62K
Liquidity
$429K
Bid / Ask
94% / 95%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
94%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
89% YES
Mar 4, 2026
Biggest move: +5.4pp
89% → 94%
Mar 5, 2026
Peak probability
95% YES — highest in period
Mar 14, 2026
Current
94% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
+8.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $62K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on October 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1500754
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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