Markets/Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:26 AM UTC

Closes October 4, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

42%YES

59%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$141K

Bid / Ask

41% / 42%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

42%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential…

2026

Full event →

the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

42%

the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

39%

the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-8.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

42% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 5, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: -6.0pp

50% → 44%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

42% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 42%99%

Buy YES@ 42¢

Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 59¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601819

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