Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Closes June 10, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$58K
Liquidity
$58K
Bid / Ask
11% / 12%
Spread
0.80pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
2025
17 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Biggest move: +8.1pp
4% → 12%
Mar 20, 2026
Peak probability
13% YES — highest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Current
11% YES (+0.2pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.5%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $58K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on June 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/564163
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.