Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Closes November 7, 2028
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$62K
Liquidity
$310K
Bid / Ask
22% / 22%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
22%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential…
2028
54 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
14% YES
Feb 24, 2026
Biggest move: +8.1pp
18% → 26%
Mar 10, 2026
Peak probability
29% YES — highest in period
Mar 12, 2026
Current
22% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $62K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561975
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Event Cluster
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