ForecastMind
Markets/Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Share on X

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$71K

Liquidity

$287K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential…

2028

Full event →
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
37%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
24%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
21%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%

66 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Feb 25, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.4%
½ Kelly1.2%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $71K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559668

Correlated Markets

Explore all →
↑ 0.99

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

↑ 0.94

Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?

↓ -0.91

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?

↓ -0.91

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

~

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

⊕

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

↓

Download 90d CSV

Full price history for your own analysis.