Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Closes December 6, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$14K
Liquidity
$123K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
2026
22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
20% YES
Feb 25, 2026
Trough probability
5% YES — lowest in period
Mar 15, 2026
Biggest move: +10.5pp
16% → 26%
Mar 8, 2026
Peak probability
26% YES — highest in period
Mar 8, 2026
Current
5% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+11.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 6, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/898413
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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