Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$56K
Liquidity
$72K
Bid / Ask
42% / 43%
Spread
0.80pp
Expert Signal
42%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
2026
29 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
15% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Trough probability
4% YES — lowest in period
Mar 2, 2026
Biggest move: +38.0pp
8% → 46%
Mar 3, 2026
Peak probability
46% YES — highest in period
Mar 3, 2026
Current
42% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $56K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469737
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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