Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
9% / 9%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Lucy Powell be the next of United Kingdom?
2026
20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
9% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Current
9% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1343457
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