Markets/Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

35%YES

65%NO

Volume 24h

$87K

Liquidity

$55K

Bid / Ask

35% / 35%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

29%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+20.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Biggest move: +9.5pp

26% → 35%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

39% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

29% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 35%99%

Buy YES@ 35¢

Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 65¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" at 35% YES / 65% NO. In the last 24 hours, $87K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 29%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 35%, NO 65%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/616902