Markets/Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?

Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:47 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

50%YES

50%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$112

Bid / Ask

16% / 84%

Spread

68.00pp

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-43.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

68% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

13% YES — lowest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

30%

Mar 4, 2026

Biggest move: -45.0pp

75% → 30%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

76% YES — highest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Current

25% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 50%99%

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 50¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?" at 50% YES / 50% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 68.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1295977