Markets/Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:32 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

92%YES

9%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

91% / 92%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

92%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

91% YES

Mar 6, 2026

Trough probability

85% YES — lowest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: -6.5pp

92% → 85%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

92% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 92%99%

Buy YES@ 92¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.9%

½ Kelly2.9%

Buy NO@ 8¢

-5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?" at 92% YES / 8% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 92%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 92%, NO 8%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1487054