Markets/Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

9%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

7% / 11%

Spread

3.60pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-54.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

71% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

11% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

24%

Mar 16, 2026

Biggest move: -46.0pp

60% → 14%

Mar 17, 2026

Current

17% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 9%99%

Buy YES@ 9¢

-4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 91¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.3%

½ Kelly2.1%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 3.60 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1271611