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Markets/Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
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Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

4% / 6%

Spread

1.40pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will UK strike Iran by March 31?

March

Full event →
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?
95%
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?
72%
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?
41%
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?
41%
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?
41%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
21%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
16%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
14%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?
9%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
9%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?
8%
Will Iran strike Syria in March?
8%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
4%
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?
4%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
4%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?
4%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31
4%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
3%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?
3%
Will Iran strike Yemen in March?
3%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?
2%
Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?
2%
Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?
1%
Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?
1%
Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?
1%

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-5.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

10% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

76%

Mar 3, 2026

Biggest move: +43.5pp

33% → 76%

Mar 3, 2026

Peak probability

76% YES — highest in period

Mar 3, 2026

Current

4% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.0%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472017

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Correlated Markets

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