Markets/Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 09:51 PM UTC

Closes June 2, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+42.9pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 8, 2026

Current

3% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-28.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly28.6%

½ Kelly14.3%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 28.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on June 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/629031