Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Closes June 21, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$352
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
1% / 1%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential…
2026
12 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 5, 2026
Current
1% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $352 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569363
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