Markets/Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 08:01 PM UTC

Closes September 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$38K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+14.3pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian…

Full event →

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats i

71%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in t

18%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Feder

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain th

Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next R

Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats

7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

Edge

+14.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+14.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on September 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1130013

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.